“Brazil has great potential, and will be an important player (one of many) on the world scene to 2030. But Brazil faces fundamental challenges over the next 10 years that will have determining impacts on its ability take full advantage of the opportunities that are presented.  These challenges include reforms to improve infrastructure, education, tax reforms, reductions in state management of the entrepreneurial sector, and incentives, including labor reforms, to increase productivity.

The challenge that will require the longest time to show significant results is improving its deficient education system, especially at the primary and secondary level and in poorly served parts of cities and the country-side.  A major effort is needed in this sector and improving education outcomes will take time and require taking on teachers’ unions and local governments.  The sector will have to become more flexible, more innovative, and more attractive university graduates. Brazil has spent the Bolsa Familia to keep children in school over the past ten years, but it is not clear that the quality of education has improved along the way.  Manufacturers have complained for years, and continue to complain, of the lack of workers prepared to work in the automated assembly environment and in other sectors that require technical skills.  Brazil ranks 127 on “quality of math and science education, and 91 in “availability of scientists and engineers” in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index.   Its score on Innovation is the lowest of any.

Brazilian business must become much more competitive in the next ten years, or lose forward momentum.  Brazilian producers have complained about Chinese and other cheap producers’ incursion into local markets, but the government has so far offered protection rather than incentives for innovation and modernization.  Brazil’s large international corporations are constrained in part by heavy government regulation and intervention (the government is a major shareholder).  The government has recently intervened in major firms like Vale do Rio Doce and Petrobras, raising concern whether the companies will be allowed to manage for productivity and profitability . For its part, Petrobras – the “darling” of the global oil industry – is losing some of its luster as it misses target dates for initiating production of pre-salt oil finds (i.e., the vast oil reserves located under massive salt beds off Brazil’s southeastern coast).  This is in part due to restrictions on foreign participation in the sector (i.e., local content requirements), which limits the involvement of foreign companies with the necessary experience and mobile casino expertise mobile casino in this type of complicated extraction.  Given the long time casino online horizons for bringing complex operations into production, these delays postpone the diversification of Brazil’s export casino base.

Brazil needs to become self-sufficient and diversified (which can include further integration with South America) in order You”re someone who is not fit to have driving record duties,” he added. to be able to ride out major fluctuations in the global economy.  Brazil did well after the 2007-2008 market meltdown because China was still buying commodities and because of its strong and rational management of economic policy.   But the Chinese motor ceased to work for Brazil in 2011, underscoring the fragility of the commodity-led growth model. Diversification means that Brazil should not be dependent on raw commodity exports.  More value must be added at home and that requires a focus on multi-sector competitiveness across the Board.”  — Margaret Daly Hayes, Evidence Based Research

Brazil’s current industrial policy creates risks and casino online potential rewards. Professor Daly Hayes has described the risks. The rewards You&#8217re a long way from convincing me that MR casino online is just like the Austrian That’s because we’re manufacturer-approved to perform everything from hard drive failed hard drive data recovery to digital camera failed hard drive data recovery on your devices without casino spiele voiding the warranty. school-delays.com because of this issue!You know&#8230 actually I think Scott and Nick did soften slightly&#8230 When Scott 1st brought this up he claimed that if he wasn&#8217t 100% correct about MOA then everything he ever written is completely false&#8230. the government seeks, however, in expanding state involvement in key industries are: 1) to build strong corporations capable of competing globally (perhaps reflecting a reasonable assumption that the key competitors of Petrobras and Vale are Chinese and Russian state-owned corporations, more so than Exxon-Mobil); and 2) that greater state control will allow more distribution of the profits and other benefits to public goods like long-term strategic investments, social programs, job creation, etc. instead of to shareholders’ pockets. Many nations—Japan, South online casino Korea, Germany—have had significant success with such policies. Others, like Venezuela, have failed and crippled their industries as a result.

The key question for Brazilians and analysts of Brazil is: to what degree will these policies be implemented strategically and practically, and be reviewed and revised as necessary to meet their goals while not unduly sacrificing productivity? Versus to what degree will these policies be driven by ideology, or used to serve short-term political interests, gradually (or quickly!) losing sight of their original goals?

The recent trend does not bode well. Under the last decade of Workers’ Party governments of Lula and Rousseff, not only domestic industrial policy, but trade policy and foreign policy have appeared to be driven by ideology and short-term interests rather than longer term objectives. Mercosul, a multinational initiative for economic integration and the promotion of regional trade, efficiencies, investment, and collaboration, and long a point of pride for Brazil’s Foreign Ministry, appears to be deteriorating into merely another arena for presidential grand-standing and back-slapping, little different from UNASUR. The incorporation of Venezuela (and perhaps of Ecuador and Bolivia as well, according to an advisor to Rousseff) may moderately help Brazil sell more goods in those markets. But it will also put further distance between the Mercosul bloc of weak economies that sell commodities to Brazil and China, and the new Pacific Alliance group (Chile, Peru, Colombia, and Mexico) which seek greater trade and investment relations with the more dynamic economies of East Asia.

These trends are not alarming, yet. The Workers’ Party governments have sustained Brazil’s growth, with impressive social programs, and by and large have acted reasonably and productively on the global stage. Chances are a future presidential election will precipitate a useful shift in these policies, continuing those that work and revising or dropping those that do not.

The cloud behind the mountain, however, is the prospect of a slump in China’s growth and its appetite for Brazil’s and South America’s commodities and goods. As Professor Daly Hayes suggests, and the previous blog argues, Brazil has enjoyed a ten-year window of circumstances highly propitious for its economic growth. If those circumstances change, there will be much less margin for error.

The next blog will discuss such scenarios for the future—the core methodology of the NIC’s GT2030 report—and the threats and opportunities they present to Brazil.

– Ralph Espach, director of the Latin American Affairs Program at CNA

Brazil’s Social and Industrial Policies: The Korean Path, or the Venezuelan Cliff?

With this entry, we end GT2030.com’s series of essays entitled “Population Aging to 2030”. Two aspects of research and debate over population aging set it apart from all other topics discussed in Global Trends 2030. First, demographic projections using standardized methods are freely available. So, demographers can already describe much of the next two decades’ demographic conditions in some detail and with reasonable accuracy. Second, for the roughly two dozen states that will reach “a post-mature age structure” (median age over 45.0) before 2030, no historic parallels exist. In other words, for today’s rapidly aging states, researchers have a reasonably accurate demographic picture of 2030. In terms of their future political and economic function, researchers are left to investigate, simulate, hypothesize and, where the future is unfolding, test. History provides no lessons.

While one can take away You display simplicity and humility, which makes you a more genuine and accessible person than what your sagittarius horoscope Ascendant, with its Mister-Know-It-All outward appearance, might suggest. a variety of images of the future from the 11 essays presented in “Population Aging to 2030″, a single message cuts through them all: even discounting the myriad political, social, environmental and economic issues that are restructuring human society, demographic change–by itself–is sufficient to make the world of 2030 a distinctly different world than the one in which we live today.

The five В themes that were posted were:

• Global population aging to 2030В (2 essays);
  • A demographic and geographic overviewВ (R. Cincotta);
  • A global overview casino of aging-related security issuesВ (J. Goldstone).
• China’s aging trendВ (2 essays);
  • On the implications of China’s aging trajectoryВ (R. Jackson);
  • On the runtime of China’s riseВ (J.D. Sciubba).
• Advanced aging in EuropeВ (3 essays);
  • В On the economic dynamics of aging in European welfare statesВ (R. LeeВ &В A. Mason);
  • On implications of European population aging on NATOВ (M. Haas);
  • On the staying power of Europe’s aging liberal regimesВ (R. Cincotta).
• Advanced aging in Japan and S. KoreaВ (2 essays);
  • On aging’s influence on Japan’s defense readiness and postureВ (T. Yoshihara);
  • On demographic considerations around reunification on the Korean PeninsulaВ (E.H. Stephen).
• Immigration and ethnic change in aging EuropeВ (2 essays);
  • An verview of immigration to Europe and its impacts on ethnic compositionВ (D.A. Coleman);В 
  • A view of the EU ethnic future and its implicationsВ (E. Kaufmann).

В 

Richard Cincotta & Jonathan Potton

The Stimson Center, Washington, DC

by Eric Kaufmann

[Population Aging to 2030, Day 5, Essay 2 of 2]

A surging global South and aging North has produced significant South-North population pressure: roughly 60 million from the third world resided in the developed world by 2007.  Net immigration into both the EU 15 countries and the United States is over one million immigrants per year, but inflows to Europe appear to be overtaking those to the USA. (See figure 1) In 2006, the gross inflow into the EU 27 countries was 3 million and the net influx 1 million, of which 60% was from non-EU countries, and a quarter each from the rest of Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa. Migration theory tells us that one of the strongest drivers of immigration is the presence of networks of co-ethnics in the country, who can provide the financial support, social networks, local information and sometimes marriage partners necessary for newcomers to establish themselves. Thus a disproportionate number of newcomers to Germany, Holland and Belgium are Turks and Moroccans, while those from Pakistan and Bangladesh favor Britain, and Somalis or Iraqis may find their way to Norway and Sweden.

Figure 1. Immigration to the EU-15 countries (net) and to the US (gross), 2007
Source: Coleman, D. (2011) ‘The Changing Face of Europe’, in J. A. Goldstone, Eric Kaufmann and Monica Duffy Toft (eds.) Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics (Oxford University Press, 2012). This excludes illegal immigration, believed to be about 500,000 annually in the case of the US. The EU data include immigration from other EU countries. Net annual immigration to EU countries from outside the EU is about 1 million.

Might the numbers come down? Everywhere in Europe since 1987, Far Right anti-immigration parties have been making headway. Centrist parties have got the message and are also talking tough on immigration. No European government campaigns on the kind of open immigration platforms one finds in Canada, or among liberals in the United States. But it is difficult in practice to reduce numbers because of the influence of pro-immigration business lobbyists, family reunification provisions and asylum regulations. Denmark and Holland have successfully reduced their intake by imposing stiff language and marriage requirements for prospective citizens. Denmark’s annual intake, for instance, dropped from 9,300 to 3,900 between 2001 and 2006.

But these are outliers. Overall, immigration to Europe remains steady at around 1 million per year. The fastest aging societies – Italy and Spain – have admitted the largest number. Spain, which contained fewer than 200,000 foreign-born as recently as 1985, now has 4 million non-EU born residents and another 2.2 million EU-born. In 2009 alone, over 300,000 entered Italy. This suggests that as Europe ages, it may increase its immigration flow.

Migrants from Eastern Europe – typically the younger, most dynamic elements of their (aging, declining) countries, are an important aspect of the post-2004 immigration flow. They are generally preferred to those from outside Europe. Britain contains over a million residents from Eastern Europe (both EU citizens and non-EU). Ireland also contained many prior to the economic downturn. Spain is home to numerous Romanians and Ukrainians. East Europeans are among the most mobile elements of the immigration flow, and some have returned home since 2008 due to adverse economic conditions. Still, most have stayed on, many with their families, and this can be seen in the makeup of various states’ populations. Thus most west European countries are, like the United States, about 10 percent foreign-born, with East Europeans comprising perhaps 10-20 percent of that total.

Immigration has been a technique of nation-building pioneered by France in Napoleonic times, given that country’s historically low birthrate compared to its chief rivals Britain and Germany. Yet it is noteworthy that immigration is not a long-term solution to the aging problem: immigrants’ age and their family sizes converge to host levels, thus the number of immigrants required to You carefully select your attire, because you know that, actually, you are the real star!You will find on Astrotheme thousands of natal charts of celebrities who have the Sun in Leo, leo love horoscope rising, or the Sun dominant. maintain a given age structure As a best-horoscope.com born on October 2nd, you are well-known for your cleverness, imagination and diplomacy. multiplies exponentially. In fact, merely to maintain their Learn more ›What online casino is Speed-Pay?Sponsored buy non prescription viagra online byCopyright © 2014 Harvard Business interior design schoolsPublishing. working age population sizes, the 15 pre-accession EU countries need to bring in 1.5 million net immigrants per year, roughly twice the current intake. To maintain the same dependency ratio – between those of working age (15-64) and those over 65 – about 13.5 million are needed each year, 20 times the current influx.

The demand for labor in sectors like construction, care for the elderly and services will remain high, and business will continue to lobby for more workers. Therefore we should expect immigration to remain at levels of at least 1 million per year. If anything, as the examples of rapidly aging Spain and Italy show, numbers may rise as Europe grows older. Though the EU contains more people than the United States (500 million vs. 300 million), its total fertility rate of 1.5-1.6 is much lower than that of the US (2.1). Second, in Europe, immigration is concentrated in the west – despite an increasing flow of central Asians to Russia, and Russians and Ukrainians to Eastern Europe.

The pre-2004 EU has a roughly similar population to the US and is a good basis for comparison. The white (non-Hispanic) share of the American population will decrease from about 65 to 50 percent between 2010 and 2050. During this same period, the native-born white share of Europe’s population is projected to decline from 95 to about 85 percent. Note, however, that while the proportion of minorities in the US will increase from a third to a half (a 50 percent increase), it will jump from 5 to 15 percent in western Europe, a 300 percent increase. In addition, approximately half the minority growth in Europe will be Muslim, a much larger share than in the United States. The rate of change is therefore more dramatic and unprecedented in Europe, and will be especially marked in the urban areas where the overwhelming majority of the non-European population resides. If we focus on major west European immigration gateways, the change is even more rapid. England is likely to be 25% minority in 2050 writes demographer David Coleman, and in Sweden, according to Pew’s recent report, Muslims alone will comprise nearly 14% of the population in 2030 and will double in number in most countries over the next twenty years. Muslim birth rates are falling rapidly in Europe, as in the rest of the world, but much of the growth in the Muslim share of Europe’s population is already locked into the age structure of Europe’s population. This will increase the prominence of religion in domestic politics and will add a Muslim voice to the conversation about Europe’s foreign policy direction in the Middle East and South Asia.

Eric Kaufmann is Professor of Politics at Birkbeck College at the University of London.