Archive for August 3rd, 2012

by David Coleman

[Population Aging to 2030, Day 5, Essay 1 of 2]

International migration is now the dominant driver of population increase in most Western European countries and in the English-speaking world, exceeding natural increase considerably and in some cases approaching the annual total addition to population from births. If current trends persist those populations will become “super diverse” with today’s ‘majority’ population no longer numerically dominant.

Figure 1. Rate of natural change and rate of net migration, selected European countries, 2010

Birth rates in developed countries are relatively low, equivalent to a family size (total fertility) of no more than two and much lower in some Southern and Eastern European countries. Population change is thus driven primarily by international migration, not natural change (the difference between the number of births and deaths). In some NW European countries population growth has been raised to levels not seen since the early 1970s (as in the US Australia and New Zealand). Rates of natural increase in European countries are nowhere over 0.4 per thousand; many are negative. Net immigration, however, approached 9 per thousand in some in 2010 (Figure 1).

Table 1. Comparison between natural increase and net migration in selected European countries.

In some countries (Table 1) the annual contribution of migrants to population growth (net of emigration) has been almost as great as the annual number of births (Switzerland, Italy), including births to immigrants. But migration can swing from one extreme to another in times of economic crisis.

The cumulative effects of immigration since the 1960s have been to raise the proportion of immigrants in national populations from (usually) small single figures to around 10% or more (Table 2). The number of immigrants is often substantially greater than the number of foreigners in any given year. Some countries turn foreigners into citizens almost as fast as they arrive in (e.g. France and the Netherlands) through rapid naturalisation.

Table 2. Number of foreign citizens and immigrants in selected European countries.

Distinctive cultural patterns and needs, residential segregation and socio-economic and other forms of disadvantage have persisted among many immigrant populations. Accordingly, some countries estimate populations of foreign origin beyond the ‘first (immigrant)’ generation. Countries of the English – speaking world ask individuals to specify their ‘ethnic origin’ or ‘ancestry’ in census or survey questions.  In continental European countries with population registers, parallel estimates are made through registration data on nationality and birthplace of individuals and of their parents. In the former, the ethnic ascriptions extend potentially over an unlimited number of generations. In the latter, the ‘third generation’ is assumed to have become ‘native’ (i.e. ‘Danish’, ‘Dutch’, etc.) and casino online disappears from statistical view. According to these estimates the population online pokies of ‘foreign origin’ or ‘foreign background’ had increased to about 20% of the national total by 2010.

In the US, the non-European racial diversity represented by the US black population was is not of recent immigrant origin. Usually the major national origin components – Moroccans, Turks, Somalis, etc. are projected separately, and broadly grouped into ‘Western’ or ‘High Human Development Index (HDI)’ (people mostly of European origin) or  non-Western (people of non-European origin) from countries of middle or low HDI.

Figure 2 shows an approximately linear increase of the minority groups to between 20% and over 30% of the national population by the end of the projection period (usually 2050 or 2060). The level of net migration is usually assumed to remain constant, given the difficulty of predicting migration. Those for Norway and The Netherlands are exceptions. In the UK, the favoured variant projection by Rees and his colleagues assumes that dgfev online casino return migration will increase pro rata with growing minority numbers, leading to markedly slower projected growth of the minority populations compared with the highest variant from this author. Later projections for Denmark and The Netherlands in the last decade indicate more modest minority growth than earlier ones, following reductions in immigration partly following restrictive policy initiatives.

Figure 2. Projection of immigrant population by region.

The continuation of these trends online casino in low-fertility countries would eventually lead to the numerical eclipse of the former majority population, assuming that the defined groups remain discrete. The latest US projections assume that the US will become the first industrial country to have a ‘majority minority’ population in about 2043, although there the black population Whereas the opposition to Neptune suggests attraction to illicit drugs, it also heralds artistic talents, which are efficient because they are indefinable or even magnetic (Taurus- scorpio love horoscope axis). is not, for the most part, of recent immigrant origin. Excitable and unscientific projections apart, few projections of European populations have extended far enough into the future to reach a similar outcome. One projection for the UK (assuming the continuation of recent migration and fertility levels) indicates that all ethnic minority populations together would exceed the number of ‘White British’ at around 2070.

A comprehensive analysis made on a common methodology for all the EU countries was published by Eurostat in 2010, on four different scenarios. The most conservative of these estimated that 26.5% of the EU population would be of ‘foreign background’ by 2061, the highest model being 34.6%. Among larger countries, the lowest estimate overall was for Bulgaria (7%); the highest for Belgium, Germany, Spain and Austria, all around 50%.

However, 60 years is a long time in demography and these projections can only illustrate the consequences of specified assumptions. Migration can, and does, go down as well as up- notably in Germany, The Netherlands and Spain in the last few years, and recently from Mexico into the United States. Populations of mixed origins are increasing fast and will have a profound effect on the social scene and on concepts of ethic identity and categorisation.

But none of this is graven in stone. Most depends on migration rates. While their high level may seem inexorable, international migration is the most volatile of demographic components, subject to multiple economic and political uncertainties, and at least in theory subject to policy control. The magnitude of the challenges presented by these trends is very great – to society, national identity, domestic and foreign policy.

David Coleman is Professor of Demography in the Department of Social Policy and Intervention at Oxford University.

References Cited.

Caldwell, C. (2009). Reflections on the Revolution in Europe. Immigration, Islam and the West. London, Allen Lane.

Coleman, D. A. (2006). “Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries: a third demographic transition.” Population and Development Review 32(3): 401 – 446.

Coleman, D. A. (2009). “Divergent patterns in the ethnic transformation of societies.” Population and Development Review 35(3): 449 – 478.

Coleman, D. A. (2010). “Projections of the Ethnic Minority Populations of the UK, 2006 – 2056.”Population and Development Review 36(3): 441 – 486.

Lanzieri, G. (2011). Fewer, older and multicultural? Projections of the EU populations by foreign/national background Luxemburg, Eurostat.

Steinmann, G. and M. Jaeger (2000). “Immigration and Integration: Non-linear Dynamics of Minorities.”Journal of Mathematical Population Studies 9(1): 65 – 82.

United Nations (2000). Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?New York, United Nations.

Wohland, Pia , Phil Rees, Paul Norman, Peter Boden and Martyna Jasinska (2010) Ethnic population projections for the UK and local areas, 2001-2051. Working Paper 10/02, School of Geography, University of Leeds.

by Eric Kaufmann

[Population Aging to 2030, Day 5, Essay 2 of 2]

A surging global South and aging North has produced significant South-North population pressure: roughly 60 million from the third world resided in the developed world by 2007.  Net immigration into both the EU 15 countries and the United States is over one million immigrants per year, but inflows to Europe appear to be overtaking those to the USA. (See figure 1) In 2006, the gross inflow into the EU 27 countries was 3 million and the net influx 1 million, of which 60% was from non-EU countries, and a quarter each from the rest of Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa. Migration theory tells us that one of the strongest drivers of immigration is the presence of networks of co-ethnics in the country, who can provide the financial support, social networks, local information and sometimes marriage partners necessary for newcomers to establish themselves. Thus a disproportionate number of newcomers to Germany, Holland and Belgium are Turks and Moroccans, while those from Pakistan and Bangladesh favor Britain, and Somalis or Iraqis may find their way to Norway and Sweden.

Figure 1. Immigration to the EU-15 countries (net) and to the US (gross), 2007
Source: Coleman, D. (2011) ‘The Changing Face of Europe’, in J. A. Goldstone, Eric Kaufmann and Monica Duffy Toft (eds.) Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics (Oxford University Press, 2012). This excludes illegal immigration, believed to be about 500,000 annually in the case of the US. The EU data include immigration from other EU countries. Net annual immigration to EU countries from outside the EU is about 1 million.

Might the numbers come down? Everywhere in Europe since 1987, Far Right anti-immigration parties have been making headway. Centrist parties have got the message and are also talking tough on immigration. No European government campaigns on the kind of open immigration platforms one finds in Canada, or among liberals in the United States. But it is difficult in practice to reduce numbers because of the influence of pro-immigration business lobbyists, family reunification provisions and asylum regulations. Denmark and Holland have successfully reduced their intake by imposing stiff language and marriage requirements for prospective citizens. Denmark’s annual intake, for instance, dropped from 9,300 to 3,900 between 2001 and 2006.

But these are outliers. Overall, immigration to Europe remains steady at around 1 million per year. The fastest aging societies – Italy and Spain – have admitted the largest number. Spain, which contained fewer than 200,000 foreign-born as recently as 1985, now has 4 million non-EU born residents and another 2.2 million EU-born. In 2009 alone, over 300,000 entered Italy. This suggests that as Europe ages, it may increase its immigration flow.

Migrants from Eastern Europe – typically the younger, most dynamic elements of their (aging, declining) countries, are an important aspect of the post-2004 immigration flow. They are generally preferred to those from outside Europe. Britain contains over a million residents from Eastern Europe (both EU citizens and non-EU). Ireland also contained many prior to the economic downturn. Spain is home to numerous Romanians and Ukrainians. East Europeans are among the most mobile elements of the immigration flow, and some have returned home since 2008 due to adverse economic conditions. Still, most have stayed on, many with their families, and this can be seen in the makeup of various states’ populations. Thus most west European countries are, like the United States, about 10 percent foreign-born, with East Europeans comprising perhaps 10-20 percent of that total.

Immigration has been a technique of nation-building pioneered by France in Napoleonic times, given that country’s historically low birthrate compared to its chief rivals Britain and Germany. Yet it is noteworthy that immigration is not a long-term solution to the aging problem: immigrants’ age and their family sizes converge to host levels, thus the number of immigrants required to You carefully select your attire, because you know that, actually, you are the real star!You will find on Astrotheme thousands of natal charts of celebrities who have the Sun in Leo, leo love horoscope rising, or the Sun dominant. maintain a given age structure As a born on October 2nd, you are well-known for your cleverness, imagination and diplomacy. multiplies exponentially. In fact, merely to maintain their Learn more ›What online casino is Speed-Pay?Sponsored buy non prescription viagra online byCopyright © 2014 Harvard Business interior design schoolsPublishing. working age population sizes, the 15 pre-accession EU countries need to bring in 1.5 million net immigrants per year, roughly twice the current intake. To maintain the same dependency ratio – between those of working age (15-64) and those over 65 – about 13.5 million are needed each year, 20 times the current influx.

The demand for labor in sectors like construction, care for the elderly and services will remain high, and business will continue to lobby for more workers. Therefore we should expect immigration to remain at levels of at least 1 million per year. If anything, as the examples of rapidly aging Spain and Italy show, numbers may rise as Europe grows older. Though the EU contains more people than the United States (500 million vs. 300 million), its total fertility rate of 1.5-1.6 is much lower than that of the US (2.1). Second, in Europe, immigration is concentrated in the west – despite an increasing flow of central Asians to Russia, and Russians and Ukrainians to Eastern Europe.

The pre-2004 EU has a roughly similar population to the US and is a good basis for comparison. The white (non-Hispanic) share of the American population will decrease from about 65 to 50 percent between 2010 and 2050. During this same period, the native-born white share of Europe’s population is projected to decline from 95 to about 85 percent. Note, however, that while the proportion of minorities in the US will increase from a third to a half (a 50 percent increase), it will jump from 5 to 15 percent in western Europe, a 300 percent increase. In addition, approximately half the minority growth in Europe will be Muslim, a much larger share than in the United States. The rate of change is therefore more dramatic and unprecedented in Europe, and will be especially marked in the urban areas where the overwhelming majority of the non-European population resides. If we focus on major west European immigration gateways, the change is even more rapid. England is likely to be 25% minority in 2050 writes demographer David Coleman, and in Sweden, according to Pew’s recent report, Muslims alone will comprise nearly 14% of the population in 2030 and will double in number in most countries over the next twenty years. Muslim birth rates are falling rapidly in Europe, as in the rest of the world, but much of the growth in the Muslim share of Europe’s population is already locked into the age structure of Europe’s population. This will increase the prominence of religion in domestic politics and will add a Muslim voice to the conversation about Europe’s foreign policy direction in the Middle East and South Asia.

Eric Kaufmann is Professor of Politics at Birkbeck College at the University of London.