GT2030 Blog Posts
A Snapshot of the Global Trends 2030 Report Dan Twining & Ash Jain Moderated – What is the impact of the rise of the rest on the liberal international order: End of the Western world?
- Overview: What Fate for Liberal Order in a Post-Western World?
- The World in 2030: Are we on the path to convergence or divergence?
- The Rise of the Rest; Decline of the West?
- The Rise of the Rest and the Return of Spheres of Influence
- To Sustain a U.S.-Led Liberal Order, Incorporate the Global Swing States
- From the Great Divergence in Global Affairs to the Great Convergence: Can America Adapt? A View from Australia
- Down But Not Out: Reports of the West’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
- China’s Challenge to the Liberal Order, India’s Attraction to It, and the Possibilities for Western Revitalization in Light of the Global Embrace of Democratic Norms
- “India Wants to Modify the Present World Order But Never to Overthrow It”
- The Future of American Power = The Future of Liberal Order?
- The Emerging “Contra-Polar” World
- Leadership in International Relations Requires Followership – And Few Countries are Prepared to Follow the Leaders of the Rising Rest
- A More Global NATO to Anchor Liberal Order in a Less Western World?
- The Central Challenge to the Western Liberal Order is the Rise of the Post-Colonial Superpowers (with American Support)
- Why the Liberal Order Will Survive in a Post-Western World
- The “Rise of the Rest” in the Tales of Two Relationships
- Two Rising Giants, Two Narratives on Sovereignty and Regional Hegemony
- The Link Between Rising Powers’ Domestic Regime Type and Liberal International Order
- Crunch Time for China?
- Rising Powers and a New Emerging Order
- Flows of Information will be as Important as Flows of Power in Shaping the Emerging Global Order
- The Indian Ocean Region and the Challenges of Order-Building in a Post-Unipolar, Post-Western World
- 2030: A World Transformed, with America at the Center
- The “Rise and Fall” Rhetoric is No Longer Relevant; The Weakening of Liberal Order Does Not Mean the Chinese System Has Strengthened
- Stuck between the “Rest” and the “West”: Turkey at the Crossroads
- The Collapse of Authoritarianism in China and Russia
- Parallel Institutions as a Challenge to the Liberal Order
- Pathways for Asian Security Order in 2030
- The Liberal Order and the Chinese Public
- Power Shift: How the West Can Adapt and Thrive in an Asian Century
- A Japanese Perspective on the Future of Liberal Order
- Liberal Democracy is Here to Stay, Thank You—But it Needs to be Tended and Adapted
- The International Order in the Age of “China versus the Rest”
- The Global Leadership Deficit
- Why the World Needs America
- Understanding China in A Profound Sense: A View from Beijing
- With the Rise of the Rest, Not Only the Balance of Power But the Balance of Ideas Willbe Decisive
- West vs. Rest
- The Good and Bad News About the Parallel Rise of China and India: A Japanese Perspective
- The Global Power Structure, Norms and the Future of the Liberal International Order
- Democratic Change in Russia and China and the Liberal International Order
Bill Burke-White Moderated – What Will be the Shape of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in 2030?
- The Shape of the Security Council in 2030
- A Path to Security Council Reform?
- Winning the 21st Century
Thomas Mahnken Moderated – Will China’s economic growth stall out? What will be the impact on the global economy?
- Assumptions about the Chinese Economy: High Growth, Leveling Off, or Downturn?
- Regionalism and Chinese Economic Growth
Zachary Riskind – Can China Avoid the “Middle Income Trap” without Political Reform? Peter Feaver Moderated with Ionut Popescu & Seth Cantey – What Will be the US Role in a Multipolar International System?
- What if American Power Diverges Sharply from the Current Trajectory?
- Is America’s Decline Really Inevitable?
- What Problems Would Be Easier to Solve if the United States Declines?
- Why we shouldn’t assume the future will be all Counterinsurgency (COIN)
- Looking Ahead: America’s Role in the Middle East
- Inflection Points and the Difficulty of Scenario Planning
- The Regionalization of the Liberal World Order
- America’s Subversive Soft Power
Jackie Newmyer Deal Moderated – How will the security environment of 2030 be affected by the proliferation of advanced technologies to a variety of smaller regional actors and even non-state actors?
- Trends in the Security Environment
- Russia’s Perspective on the Future Security Environment
- Japan’s Perspective on the Future Security Environment
- Future Security Environment Challenges for the US Air Force and the US Navy
- Implications of Global Trends for Seaborne Power Projection
- Regional Nuclear Powers in the Future Security Environment
- More on Regional Nuclear Powers in the Future Security Environment
- The RMA with Chinese Characteristics in the Future Security Environment
- More on China’s Perspective on the Future Security Environment
- Implications of Future Security Environment Trends for US Ground Forces
- The Role of Nuclear Weapons in the Future Security Environment
- Nuclear Weapons and Precision Strike in the Future
Steve Weber Moderated – How Will Employment Change with the Expansion of New Technologies—like Robotics—in Manufacturing? Will We See a New Unemployable Underclass?
- How Will Employment Change with the Expansion of New Technologies—like Robotics—in Manufacturing? Will We See a New Unemployable Underclass?
Robert O. Moderated – Future trajectories of migration and issues policy makers will face.
- Future Trajectories of Migration and Issues Policy Makers Will Face – Migration and Europe
- Could Western Europe Cope with New Waves of Muslim Immigration?
- Mega-cities and Migrants
- Is There any Prospect for Global Governance of Migration?
Drew Erdmann Moderated – Urbanization Dynamics and Challenges
- Urbanization and its Challenges: Introduction to the Week of July 15-21 discussion
- Urban World: Cities and the Rise of the Consuming Class
- Mapping the World’s Shifting Economic Center of Gravity Toward Asia
- Urbanization and the Global Climate Dilemma
- Urbanization and American National Security
- The City as a System: Future Conflict and Urban Resilience
- Urbanization’s National Security Implications
- Urbanization, Security and Resiliency
- Military Operations as Urban Planning
- Fighting in the New World: What Urbanization Means for Military Planners
- Urbanization’s National Security Implications – Part 2
- Urban Growth, Inequality, and Telecommuting
- Urbanization as Opportunity
- Citizens of Cities Not Nations – Implications of an Urban World for Government
- Urbanization’s Implications for Governance
- Cities and the Next Era of Latin American Progress
- Urbanization and the World in 2030: Concluding Reflections on the NIC Blog for the Week of July 15-21
William Inboden Moderated – American Decline
- This Week: Exploring the Question of American Decline
- The Austro-Hungarian Legacy: Creative Citizens Need Innovative Governance
- American Decline: Is Perception Always Reality?
- Re-Thinking World Power, from Shanghai to Silicon Valley
- The First Five Centuries
- Will America Thrive?
- Discretionary Decline
- Brazilian Fishing
- America in Decline: Through the Looking Glass
- Looking Backward, Planning Forward
- The Decline of American Education
- A Demographic Morning in America
- Prediction and the Elusive Elements of Power Decline
- Catching the Winds of Power
- The Fiscal Politics of Decline
- Global Governance and the Paradox of US Decline
- Divisions of Decline: Family Structure and Social Capital
- Concluding Reflections on American Decline
Richard Cincotta Moderated – Will Aging Cripple the West? Will It Cripple China’s Development?
- The Week Ahead: Population Aging to 2030
- Population Aging: a Demographic and Geographic Overview
- Population Aging: More Security or Less?
- China and the Challenge of Premature Aging
- The Sun Has Yet to Set on China
- Population Aging and the Welfare State in Europe
- Population Aging and the Future of NATO
- The Beginning of History: Advanced Aging and the Liberalness of Democracies
- The Strategic Implications of Japan’s Demographic Decline
- Pinterest clone sites list
- A Demographic Sketch of a Reunified Korea in 2030
- The Impact of Immigration on the Populations of the Developed World and their Ethnic Composition
- The Ethnic Future of Western Europe to 2030
- List of social bookmarking sites
- Population Aging to 2030: End of a Week
Ralph Espach is Moderated – Brazil’s Future Role in the International System
- Brazil on the Rise?
- Brazil’s Social and Industrial Policies: The Korean Path, or the Venezuelan Cliff?
- Brazil as a World Power Beyond 2030: Geographic, Economic and Military Dimensions
Allan Dafoe Moderated – Will the Long Peace Persist?
- Will the Long Peace Persist?
- The Arc of War
- The Hazards of Forecasting
- World War III?
- International Economic Institutions and Great Power Peace
- Doubting the Decline of Great Power War Thesis
- Blog sites list
- Great Power War to 2030
- The Long Peace: Systematic Trends and Unknown Unknowns
- A short Comment on the Long Peace – Part 1
- Developmental Peace as a Piece of the Long Peace – Part 2
- War and Peace Among the Rest – Part 3
- Buy and sell websites
- The Not So Long Peace?
Richard Engel (from the National Intelligence Council) Posted – Climate Change 2030: More Extreme Weather Howard Passell Moderated – Will Mega-Cities be a Cauldron for Revolution or Be an Engine for Technological Revolutions?
- Week Schedule and Author Bios for Mega-Cities
- Will Mega-Cities be a Cauldron for Revolution or an Engine for Technological Revolutions?
- Can We Predict which Mega-Cities are Most Vulnerable to Epidemics?
- The Wealth and Power Nexus: Will Mega-Cities Revolutionize Global Governance?
- Urban Fragility and Global Mega-Cities
- Alpha-Cities, Mega-Slums and Tomorrow’s Revolutions
- Urbanization and Climate Change
Cung Vu Moderated – Will Shale Gas Give a Second Burst to US Manufacturing?